From the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies:
Results from the 2015 Arab Opinion Index, the largest public opinion poll of its kind in the Arab region, were officially released as part of a press conference in Doha, Qatar today. This year’s findings were based on 18,311 face to face interviews conducted in 12 separate Arab countries. The latest survey affords scholars and policy makers the opportunity to understand how the Arab citizenry views the most pressing issues which face it today, including the Iranian nuclear deal; the growth of radical extremism and, in particular, the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL); and the Syrian revolution. In addition, respondents’ answers to the survey questions offer a wealth of information on Arab citizens’ attitudes towards democracy, the relationship between religion and civil and political affairs, and the future prospects of their home countries. This year’s Arab Opinion Index marks the fourth consecutive year that The Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies has conducted its yearly survey of Arab public opinion, allowing comparisons in the Arab public attitudes towards the main issues surveyed in all AOI polls since its launch in 2011.
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The countries included within this year’s Arab Opinion Index are Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia, Mauritania, Egypt, Sudan, Palestine, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. Together, they represent 90% of the population of the Arab League. Each of the country-specific samples were conducted using a randomized, self-weighted, multi-stage cluster method, providing margins of error of between 2% and 3%.
The report Arab Opinion Index 2015: In Brief is a 44-page PDF available at the linked site. The reported highlights are organized under several headings:
- Living Conditions of the Arab Citizenry
- Arab Citizens’ Views of State Institutions and Governmental Effectiveness
- Arab Public Attitudes Towards Democracy
- Civic and Political Participation
- Religion and Religiosity in the Public Sphere and Political Affairs
- Arab Public Opinion and Pan-Arab Affairs
- Arab Public Opinion and the Arab Spring
- Arab Public Opinion and Current Affairs
I’ll give a few of the highlights, but the whole report is well worth reading;
Living Conditions of the Arab Citizenry: 29% are ‘in need’: their household incomes do not cover necessary expenses. Another 48% are ‘in hardship’: their household incomes cover necessary expenses but do not allow them to save anything. Only 20% report that their household incomes allow them to cover necessary expenses and still save.
Arab Citizens’ Views of State Institutions and Governmental Effectiveness: A majority (58%) have a high level of trust in their countries’ militaries, and another 24% trust them to some extent, but other state institutions don’t fare nearly so well: none is highly trusted by more than 37%. The political parties come off worst at 7%, and the legislatures are highly trusted by only 17%. For the first time, however, only a minority (47%) think that financial and administrative corruption is very widespread.
Arab Public Attitudes Towards Democracy: 89% of the respondents had clear definitions of democracy. These varied, but most emphasized either safeguarding citizens’ civil and political liberties or guaranteeing equality between and justice for citizens. 72% were in favor democracy, and only 22% were opposed. 79% thought that democracy was very appropriate or appropriate to some extent for their countries; the corresponding figure for Islamic sharia is only 33%, and 32% thought it completely inappropriate. 55% would accept an electoral victory by a political party with which they disagreed; 40% would oppose the ascendancy of such a party.
Civic and Political Participation: Television is overwhelmingly the main source of news (74%); state broadcasters were the most popular (16.3%), followed by Al Jazeera (12.3%). The internet is a distant second at 11%.
Religion and Religiosity in the Public Sphere and Political Affairs: 63% consider themselves religious to some extent, and another 24% consider themselves very religious; only 10% define themselves as not religious or a non-believer. However, they defined religiosity mostly in terms of morality and values rather than in terms of religious observances. Moreover, while there is considerable variation from country to country, overall 72% agree (42%) or strongly agree (30%) that ‘No person/group has the right to declare followers of other religions to be infidels’. And 77% agree (44%) or strongly agree (33%) that ‘The government does NOT have the right to use religion as a means of winning public support’. On the other hand, only a bare majority favors separation of religion from politics.
Arab Public Opinion and Pan-Arab Affairs: 75% feel that the Palestinian cause concerns ‘all of the Arab peoples and not just the Palestinians alone’, and 85% are opposed to diplomatic recognition of Israel by their own countries. The reasons given are quite varied; topping the list at 24.5% is ‘Israel is a colonialist, expansionist state’, followed (at 13.0%) by ‘It is an expansion state which seeks to dominate the Arab world and control its resources’. Majorities have negative or somewhat negative opinions of the foreign policies of the U.S. (65%), Iran (62%), and Russia (54%) towards the Arab world. 63% favor the creation of a zone free of nuclear weapons in the Near and Middle East.
Arab Public Opinion and the Arab Spring: Attitudes here are mixed and quite complex; I’m not even going to try to summarize them.
Arab Public Opinion and Current Affairs: Virtually everyone is aware of Da‘ish (IS, ISIL, ISIS), and 76% follow related developments closely through the media. 80% have a very negative attitude towards it, and another 9% have a somewhat negative view. There is little difference in attitude towards Da‘ish between the very religious and those who are not religious, or between opponents and supporters of separation of religion from the state. In general it appears that positive views of Da‘ish mostly stem from political considerations or its military success, not from religious considerations. Overall 50% believe that Da‘ish was created by foreign actors, while 38% consider it a product of its own environment. On the other hand, when asked to choose between the view that it’s a product of the existence of religious extremism and fanaticism in Arab societies and the view that it’s a product of the policies of Arab regimes, 48% chose the first alternative and only 35% the second. Finally, a very substantial majority (62%) think that the best solution to the Syrian crisis is a change of regime.